iran so far away
i remember a while back, when the bush administration was riding high after it's cakewalk to baghdad, the stage being set for the invasion of iran. there was a lot of chatter on fox news and such about how iran was going to have nuclear weapons really soon. i mean soon. they made it seem like iran was going to have them next week and that would spell the end of the world.
while perusing globalsecurity.org's website, i found some of these mossad and cia distributed "facts" i'd been looking for for -
Some sources suggested that Iran could complete development of its first nuclear weapon in 2005. US Undersecretary of State John Bolton has said Teheran told Britain, France and Germany that Iran could enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon within a year. "If we permit Iran's deception to go on much longer, it will be too late," Bolton told the Hudson Institute on 17 August 2004. "Iran will have nuclear weapons."
An annual Israeli intelligence assessment delivered to the government officials on 21 July 2004 estimated that Iran could have a nuclear bomb by 2008, Ma'ariv" reported on 22 July 2004. According to this report, the assessment concluded that Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons represented the greatest threat to Israel. This press report claimed that the assessment contended that international nuclear inspections in Iran had stalled the progress of Tehran's uranium-enrichment program by two or three years. This report claimed that enrichment has a long maturation process and, once halted, must be started again from scratch. Israeli Defense Force intelligence had previously claimed that Iran could have a nuclear capability by 2005.
On 13 January 2005 the Jerusalem Post reported that the head of army intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aharon Ze'evi (Farkash), told an audience at the University of Haifa that Iran will be capable of producing its own enriched uranium within six months, and would be able to produce its first nuclear bomb in the 2008 to 2010 timeframe.
On 16 February 2005 Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said that Iran was only six months away from having the knowledge to build an atomic bomb. "They are trying very hard to develop this nuclear bomb," Shalom told reporters at a briefing in London. "It is very important, because the question is not if the Iranians develop a nuclear bomb in 2009, 2010 or 2011," he said. "The main question is, are they going to develop the knowledge to do it? We believe that in six months from today they are going to end all the tests and experiments they are doing in order to have that knowledge." On 12 November 2006 Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran intended to install 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges by March 2007. Hosseini said Iran was doing all the work to install the centrifuges under control of the UN nuclear watchdog, adding that two cascades of 164 centrifuges were already in operation in the country.
Israel's deputy chief of General Staff told a conference of mayors on 08 December 2006 that Iran would have nuclear weapons "in the near future." Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky warned of the danger of the deepening alliance among Hizbullah, Syria, Iran and Hamas, saying that, "The deeper the connection between [them]... the more we need to worry." Kaplinsky said Syria was continuing to re-arm Hizbullah while both Hizbullah and Syria prepared for another round of warfare against Israel. Reports in Israeli media indicate that the army is anticipating the possibility of a resumption of the Lebanon war next summer.
On 18 December 2006 the head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency sought to dispel the idea that it is too late to deter Iran from completing its nuclear development program. Speaking to a parliamentary committee, Meir Dagan said the concept of "a point of no return does not exist." He said the Iranians won't have a nuclear bomb before 2009, which left time for diplomacy to succeed.
--
at the time it seemed that there would be more support for this invasion than for the iraq invasion, as western europe fears the inevitable retribution for the hundreds of years of mistreatment of muslims and are within potential striking range of iranian missiles. israel was producing this "intelligence" daily on the iranian nuclear threat. iran would have the bomb in a few years, iran would have the bomb within a year. iran would have the bomb IN SIX MONTHS. christ, we must act now, or else israel is going to get bombed back to the stone age and europe will be next.
for bush, the fact that the iranians would have a nuclear power plant was nothing more than political fodder for an invasion. as we all know, iran has a vast amount of oil and natural gas that is not owned and operated by shell and british petroleum. the fact that iran was going to have nuclear power was the only excuse he needed for an invasion.
things were moving along just fine, but the juggernaut hit a snag. the russians were actually building the plant. this was complicated for several reasons. iraq owed russia several billion dollars before it's invasion and with the invasion, russia knew it would never see that money. iran was paying the russians to build the power plant, and if it was destroyed, russia knew it would never see that money either, so they decided they wouldn't allow the united states to invade iran. this was a problem for the united states, but not israel, but there was a problem that israel couldn't sweep aside - the plant was being built by russians. if you bomb the plant, you kill an unknown number of russians, which would be really, really bad. also, iran learned from iraq's mistake of living in isolation while sitting on top of the most strategic resource on earth. iraq lost the war, not because it's military couldn't match the united states, but because it had few friends and the only friends it did have were on the "axis of evil" list - a list of pathetic, powerless nations. with the rhetoric getting heated, iran stepped up it's friendship with china and russia. this alliance against a potential invasion equals the power and influence of the united states and europe. this led to a stalemate
with each day of america's occupation of iraq came increasing resistance. with this resistance came the reality that the united states couldn't possibly invade iran while it was facing an increased insurgency in iraq. if the already thinly stretched army had pulled out an invasion of iran, there would have been a power vacuum in iraq and it would have either reverted to baathist(socialist) rule, or be ruled by pro-iran shiites, which were unacceptable outcomes, either way. so, with each day that passed it became harder and harder for the united states to pull off an invasion.
as alan greenspan admitted, the iraq war was about oil. the iran war would have been about the same thing, but at this point, the potential to force open iran's natural resources to western "competition" through military means was all but over, making any invasion nothing more than a costly blunder.
the rhetoric died down. every once in a while, you'd see a jab thrown here and there, but it was pretty obvious that an invasion wasn't really gonna happen. this was nothing more than a macho chest beating, while simultaneously retreating with tail between legs.
now, with the recent intelligence report, released by the u.s., stating that there is no nuclear program underway and the fact that everybody knows that bush lied about iraq and weapons of mass destruction, there will be no american invasion of iran. period. bush will never get approval for an invasion from anybody, which leaves only israel to do it. in fact, today it was announced that, "Israel believes Iran will have the resources to create a nuclear weapon by 2010 despite a U.S. intelligence report that it was not building an atomic bomb, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said on Sunday."
lol.
more related goodies:
occupy this
what was the purpose of the occupy movement? what can be fixed? how do we fix it? do we fix it?
pesky nasa pensions
Ideas for How to Run an Effective Tea Party Group
stop the insanity
why not to hire a tea partier to design your website
survival of the fattest
americans getting fatter, especially in the south.
california dreamin'
this state is run by a bunch of morons
against science
people deny the same science which rules every part of their lives
health scare
are they really patriots? dunno.
change?
a 20th century solution to a 21st century problem
thank you mr. paulson
could i get just a little of that $85 billion?
risky business
there's more to the 200 billion dollar bailout of freddie mac and fanny mae than meets the eye.
this author knows sarah palin
got this email forwarded to me from a friend of a friend who apparently knows sarah palin
attention drivers: get back in your cars!
gas is cheap again.
censorship @ the la times
i got censored!!!!
the decline and fall
reading edward gibbon's 'decline and fall of the roman empire.' an interesting read.
a prediction
a parting gift from george bush awaits the next president.
irradiated nation
irradiation is supposed to kill bacteria. doesn't appear to work.
i'll take a burger, hold the diarrhea.
who is responsible for the salmonella spread and why is the fda protecting them?
bitch and moan
americans are selfish whiners.
the bush legacy
just what will bush's legacy be?
future ghettos
the cost of gasoline is going to change the way americans live, whether they like it or not.
iSuck
we hate the war, but are powerless to do anything about it. this is why.
dr. ron paul
a friend suggested i take a look at dr. ron paul, so i did.
cut and run
george bush wants to cut some more taxes to stimulate the economy. this is why we are in this mess to begin with.
political progress
with the election machine ramping up, i am taking some time to think about the coming spectacle.
whole foods
whole foods has become the only real option for people who eat organic food in alot of communities. this is really bad.
eminent domain 2.0
the government wants your stuff to make themselves more money. is it a communist plot?
freedom fries
why would someone defend my right to poison myself in the name of the free market?
tap dancing
larry craig, just like everyone else in the republican party, is a hypocrite. it wasn't supposed to be this way.
gentrification
i am a white male. i live in an ethnic neighborhood that i wasn't born in. i am responsible for rents going up. such is life.
nice try gw
will anyone fall for this insincere attempt to pacify european discontent of america's lax environmental policy?
dear france
sarkozy?
ladies and gentlemen, hugo chavez
hugo chavez has become a powerful leader of the old left. the old left is completely irrelevant.
a dying colonialism
red dawn, frantz fanon, ho chi minh. america's inability to learn from the mistakes of european imperialism and it's incapacity to understand that other people don't want us to make their decisions for them.
killing is easy
a dummies guide for folks who've never fired a gun
burn the constitution
why the constitution must change or be thrown away.
an odd union
the american labor movement has always aligned itself with the liberal democratic party - even though union members are anything but liberal.
the corporation
is our entire economy built on lies?
libertarians vs. reality
libertarians are the funniest windmill jousters around.
usa uber alles
the current immigration "dilemma" is something that conservatives are, yet again not thinking through.
