a prediction

a prediction: i predict that iran will be bombed just before george bush leaves the white house by the israelis, with obvious help from the americans. i also predict that this will be a total failure.

israel carried out a massive wargame recently. i would imagine that they are waiting to gather enough intelligence on iran's nuclear program for an attack.

israel will have no other choice, but to simultaneously, or possibly preemptively launch an assault on hezbollah, in order to prevent them from firing significant amounts of missiles deep into israeli territory. hezbollah, having learned the value of such weapons during it's last tangle with israel has certainly replenished it's stockpile and most likely upgraded to longer range missiles as well. i would imagine that this aspect of israel's operation will be a ground war, as the majority of it's air forces would be busy in iran. that said, israel could also launch only cruise missiles into iran and use it's air force to fight hezbollah. i would also imagine that israel would use this as an excuse to attempt to decimate hezbollah for their ass-whooping the last time around. israel could also attempt to do a little p.r. campaigning by declaring that they are simply trying to loosen hezbollah's grip on lebanon. hezbollah exists because of israeli incursions into lebanon and israel returns, it only strengthens them and their grasp of the country. you think they'd be able to figure this out by now.

hezbollah will most likely launch a massive array of missiles into northern israel. they could also launch them from farther north in lebanon, not just along the border, where they are more vulnerable to israeli attack, due to the missile's longer ranges. syria, with it's mutual protection pact with iran would also be forced to join in and launch it's fleet of aging soviet missiles into israel, or potentially attempt to retake the beqa'a valley, or do both, an operation that they have most certainly been preparing for for quite a long time.

the israelis will have to use the airspace of either turkey, saudi arabia and/or iraq to carry out such a mission, inciting violence in those regions. unkind words will flow from shiite iraq and this will unite muslims for another temporary respite from their mutual hatred.

the americans in iraq will face unprecedented violence for obviously colluding with israel and aiding with intelligence and possibly giving permission to use iraqi airspace that isn't theirs to give. iran itself has a new gleaming fleet of funny looking missiles, probably aimed at israel and us military bases in iraq. since all of iraq will be united against the americans, iran will seem as saviors - at least for a period of time. iran's missile rampage and open rebellion by the people in iraq will be america's toughest challenge yet.

iran has had years to bury components of it's nuclear program that is now predicted to be scattered at an inestimable number of sites around the country. if iran is bombed, it will refuse to ever allow iaea agents into it's country again and any possibility of public disclosure of it's future policy will vapourize. iran will suddenly announce to the world that it is giving up it's ambition for nuclear power, while continuing to carry it on in it's remaining laboratories. eventually, whether anyone likes it or not, they will have nuclear weapons. it is inevitable.

since the russians are building the iran's official nuclear facilities, there will most certainly be russians dying in the attack. russian scientists dying at the hands of bloodthirsty israelis and americans. with russia becoming increasingly assertive these days, it could, or rather will, perpetuate the already underway new cold war, something that the bush administration has been certain to fuel.

europe, in it's perpetual fickleness and indecision will condemn the attack, while secretly supporting it, though they could have easily carried it out themselves if europe had any balls or could agree on something. israel, playing it's favorite role - that of poor persecuted little peace loving country - will assert that it did what had to be done, for the sake of the rest of the world. it threw itself under the truck to save us. gee, thanks.

george bush will do what he does best - play dumb, leaving a nice little turd in the catbox for his successor to clean up.

and it goes on and on and on.

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